Falls Risk and Mortality among Chronic Complex Outpatients: Results of Community-Based Prospective Study

Special Article - Fall Prevention

Gerontol Geriatr Res. 2016; 2(5): 1024.

Falls Risk and Mortality among Chronic Complex Outpatients: Results of Community-Based Prospective Study

González-Henares MA1*, Clua-Espuny JL1, Queralt-Tomas MLL1, Panisello-Tafalla A1, Ripolles-Vicente R1, Campo-Tamayo W1, Muria Subirats E1, Gil-Guillen VF2 and Lucas-Noll J1

1Department of Health, Catalonian Health Institute, Spain

2Department of Clinical Evidence Based Medicine and Emotional, Miguel Hernández University, Spain

*Corresponding author: González Henares MA, Department of Health, Catalonian Health Institute, EAPCamarles- Aldea-Ampolla, Institute Catalá Salut, SAP Terres de l’Ebre, Generalitat de Catalunya, CAP Ampolla, 43895 Spain

Received: October 13, 2016; Accepted: November 03, 2016; Published: November 04, 2016

Abstract

Introduction: In the developed countries around 3-4% of the people could be identified as chronic complex patient and they are increasingly at risk of falling. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the association of fall risk and mortality risk.

Materials and Methods: We carried out a multicenter and prospective cohort study of mortality incidence from 01.01.2013 to 30.09.2016 among 825 adult patients registered in the electronic health record of Primary Care as Chronic Complex Outpatient (CCP). To predict hazard ratios, mean survival time, and survival probabilities used a multivariate Cox regression.

Results: Patients with falls were more likely to be women, be older age (85.46±SD7.39 vs 81.94±SD10.21, p <0.001), have more CCP criteria (4.22±SD1.26 vs 3.75±SD1.17, p<0.001); score higher in Pfeiffer test (3.75±SD3.35 vs 2.86±SD73.23, p <0.001) and had lower score in Barthel index (53.38±SD33.24 vs 68.82±SD31.33, p<0.001). The global mortality was 32, 5% (n= 257). This study confirms that cognitive deficits detected on clinical assessment among people on fall risk are associated with an increased mortality risk in community and the Barthel score remained a significant factor in reduction in mortality [HR 0.984 CI95% 0.976-0.993, p <0.001].

Conclusion: This study confirms that the cognitive impairment and the score Barthel <60 are associated with an increased mortality risk in community and they are a useful indicator to identify subjects eligible for preventive measures in public health strategies.

Keywords: Falls; Chronicity; Aged; Risk factors; Mortality; Cognitive function; Disability

Abbreviations

CCP: Chronic and Complex Patient; HR: Hazard Risk; IDIAP: Primary Care Research Institute Jordi Gol I Gurina; NOACs: Novel Oral Anticoagulants; SD: Standart Deviation; SSRI: Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor; TTR: Time in Therapeutic Range.

Introduction

We face an epidemic of multi-morbidity and rising complexity of health needs [1,2] resulting from changing demographics and global circumstances. In the developed countries around 3-4% of the people could be identified as chronic complex patient and they are increasingly at risk of falling. Falls can be markers of poor health and declining function, and they are often associated with. Falls and their subsequent outcomes are likely to remain a major health care cost for all European countries for the foreseeable future. The prevention of falls is of major importance because they engender significant morbidity and mortality. Nowadays the falls among older people are major issues for health and social care providers [3-6].

The objectives of this study were: (i) to evaluate the association of fall risk and mortality risk among people registered as chronic complex outpatients and (ii) to explore differences in the association of outcome factors on mortality. We hypothesized that, given the high burden of multimorbidity in Chronic Complex Patients (CCP), falls risk would be associated with a higher risk of death.

Materials and Methods

We carried out a multicenter and prospective cohort study of mortality incidence from 01.01.2013 to 30.09.2016 among out-ofhospital patients over 65 years old attending primary care teams in the Terres de l’Ebre health area in Catalonia (Spain). All people included were managed by the Public Health System in Catalonia. The overall number of CCP registered was 3,490 people. We included a randomized sample of 825 adult patients registered in the electronic health record of Primary Care as Chronic Complex Outpatient (CCP) in the period 01/01/2013-31/12/2014. Patients were excluded if they resided in a long-term institutional setting. Alpha Risk = 5%; Beta Risk = 20%; Power = 80, 0%.

Patient outcome was followed until death or study end (30.09.2016) since date of report as CCP in the electronic health record. Data included demographics, functional, comorbidity, cognitive and social assessment, and were collected directly from the Shared Individual Intervention Plan [Pla d’Intervenció Individualitzat Compartit (PIIC)] written and managed by nursing service in Primary care. In the PIIC, determinants related to the personal factors, social and physical environment are described as well a tailored personal approach according the patient’s preferences in case of hospital readmission o emergency use, and main caregiver. The report is updated automatically to ensure that relevant information is shared across the electronic health record. Currently 82% of people registered as CCP have this basic information in their PIIC.

Definitions

Chronic Complex Patient (CCP) definition: Those who meet at least four of the next criteria: Age (=65 year-old). Chronic comorbidities (=4). Psychosocial disorders (cognitive impairment or psychological disorder with functional disability). Geriatric conditions such as functional disability (Barthel score <55, living to assisted living, nursing home, or in-home caregivers) or recurrent falls or fall risk. Previous high health care utilization (two hospitalizations no programmed for exacerbation of chronic pathologies or three emergency department visits in last year). Number of active medications last six months (=4 active medications). Living alone or with caregiver =75 year-old. “They defined the “Chronic Complex Patient” [6] as those who have chronic illness and also complex clinical situations which make their management significantly far more difficult.

There are problems in defining falls risk as many studies fail to specify an operational definition, leaving room for interpretation. A fall is an unintentional event that results in the person coming to rest on the ground or another lower level (W19.9 code in the electronic health record). A fall was defined as the result of any event that caused the patient to end up on the ground against their will, according to the WHO definition [7,8]. We used “the report clinical in the electronic health record that a person had falls risk or previous recurrent falls with or without any serious injury”. If a patient is thought to be high by medical or nursing staff, allied health or careers such patients will be identified as “fall risk” in the PIIC. This might include mention of the patient’s level of orientation and cognition, gait and balance, continence status, and number and types of prescribed medications, as well as number of diagnosis.

The independent variables were:

Sex: woman (0) man (1).

Age: <80 year-old (1), =80 year-old (2).

Number CCP criteria: <4 (0) =4 (1).

Charlson comorbidity index [7]. Short version.

Polypharmacy (defined as four or more daily medications) [8]: <5 (0), entre 5-9 (1), and =10 (2). Oral anticoagulants (acenocumarol or warfarina) con TTR =60% (1), si TRT <60% (2) or New Oral Anticoagulants NOACs (0). Antidepressants and/or, sedating or other drugs affecting the neurologic system: man (1), woman (2).

Recurrent falls or fall risk: no (0), yes (1).

Hypertension not controlled by therapy (= 160/90 mmHg): no (0), yes (1).

Alcoholism abuse vs dependence: no (0), yes (1).

Presence de cognitive impairment [9]: a disease-specific diagnosis of cognitive impairment, without specification of sub-type or severity, was used and measured by Pfeiffer test [2]: [0-2 errors] = Intact Intellectual Functioning (1); [=3 errors] = Mild to severe Intellectual Impairment (2)].

Presence de disability: score in [Barthel =60 (1) <60 (2)] or in [Rankin <4 (1) 5(2)].

Sociofamiliar risk: score in Gijon [10] scale 10-14 (1) =15 (2)].

Demographic data were summarized using mean and SD or median and quartiles for continuous variables and percentages for categorical data. Data analysis information extracted was the adjusted risk estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI). Statistical tests of homogeneity were performed using Cochran’s Chi-squared test for homogeneity (Q) and the percentage of total variation across studies attributable to heterogeneity (I2).

To predict hazard ratios, mean survival time, and survival probabilities used a multivariate Cox regression. The variables were included in a multivariable model Cox to identify their influence on the mortality. In the survival analyses of risk factors for death, follow-up began at the start of the study, and patients were censored when follow-up ended for reasons other than death. A graphical presentation of the survival of fallers versus non fall risk was made using an adaptation of the Kaplan–Meier product-limit estimator.

Ethics approval was granted by Ethics Commitee Research Institut Primary Care Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAP), Health Department, Generalitat de Catalua.

Results

825 CCP cases were included (52.3% women). The basal characteristics are showed in Table 1. Average age was 82.5 yr (CI95% 81.8-83.2). Average number of CCP criteria was 3.83 (CI 95% 3.75– 3.92). The global mortality was 32, 5 % (n= 257). The average survival time was 1,032.13 days (DS 2022.0; IC95% [890.86-1173.40]). In the survival analyses of risk for death, the outcome independent factors were: age [HR 1.04 CI95% 1.02-1.05, p <0.001], the genre [HR 0.61 CI95% 0.48-0.78, p <0.001], the Charlson score [HR 1.19 CI95% 1.09-1.29, p <0.001], the Barthel score [HR 0.98 CI95% 0.98-0.99, p <0.001].